Tuesday, July 01, 2008

Predictions - DeLong - 10/4/2008

Predictions are cheap, especially on the internet. So why not keep track of them?

Hearing that President Bush extended unemployment benefits, Brad DeLong makes the following prediction:
It seems to me likely that--whatever happens to the economy--George W. Bush has just produced four bad unemployment-rate headlines on the Saturdays August 2, September 6, and October 4.

Expiration Date: October 4, 2008.


Bret said...

I think the clause "--whatever happens to the economy--" trips up his argument pretty well.

I might just as reasonably predict that if I pour a glass of lemonade, and leave it in the street for a week, when I come back I will find some spoiled lemonade. I'm obviously correct, until you consider the entire rest of the universe.

Tommaso Sciortino said...

The full quote does a better job explaining Delong's thinking. He's arguing that extending unemployment benefits makes the unemployment rate look worse (since people get counted for longer) so even if the economy gets better, the unemployment statistics will look bad for the future quarters.

Bret said...

I did read the article. I just think it's an odd donkey to tack your tail to. A bajillion things go into the unemployment rate. Does Delong really think that -this- is the Bush mistake that's going to cost McCain the election?

(Did you see how I plugged the site?)